Kyrie Irving and Duke have to contain Derrick Williams and Arizona to avoid the upset.
Kyrie Irving, the sensational freshmen that is recovering from a broken foot, will be matched-up against the weakness of Arizona—their guards.
Kyle Fogg runs the point and has a underwhelming 2.7 assists per game average. He has scored a total of nine points in two tournament games and Irving will be able to relax on the defensive end and ease the pressure on his recovering toe.
Combine that mismatch with the Nolan Smith v. Lamont Jones battle and the guards are much better for Duke.
Why does Arizona have a chance?
Derrick Williams.
The sophomore who has put his team on his back in route to the Sweet 16, averages 19 points and eight rebounds per game while shooting 61 percent from the field. He scores a amazing 25 percent of his teams entire scoring output.
Williams is going to be an NBA player soon enough—but for now he has to expose the soft Plumlee brothers in the front court.
Mason and Miles are going to have their hands full with Williams as they have yet to face a player as talented as the 6’9 big man.
If Williams gets going early and gets the Plumlee brother’s in foul trouble…Williams will be looking at a 30 point, 15 rebound performance out of Williams.
SI’s Seth Davis gives Williams some more praise:
“Who is the best player remaining in the NCAA tournament? Jimmer? Nolan? Jared? Kemba? Many would argue it’s Derrick Williams, Arizona’s sensational 6-foot-8 sophomore. During Arizona’s win over Texas, Williams demonstrated my adage that a great player knows how to play well when he’s not playing well. Williams was rusty offensively (4-for-14 shooting, including 0-for-6 in the first half), yet he still attempted 15 free throws and grabbed nine rebounds. Oh yeah, he also converted the game-winning three-point play. Nobody can stop Williams, but Duke has several defenders, most notably Kyle Singler, who have the potential to keep him from going crazy. On the flip side, I think the Wildcats’ guards will have a hard time dealing with Duke’s defensive pressure, especially after Kyrie Irving has a few practices under his belt. If Duke falls in love with the three-pointer again that would be bad news for the Blue Devils, but I’m guessing they learned the perils of doing that from their shaky finish against Michigan, when they hoisted 20 three-pointers and made only five…….Duke 82, Arizona 76”
Arizona has to yield the penetration from the Duke guards and force-feed Williams in the post.
Aside from Williams, Arizona simply doesn’t have the abundance of talent and experience that resides on Duke. You can’t rely on one player in the Sweet 16 and the Wildcats don’t have enough of a supporting cast to hang with Duke.
Take the team that knows how to win the big games…Duke is the pick.
Check out the Bleacher Report March Madness home page for all of the latest info you need to know about the 2011 NCAA tournament.